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Chile to 2030: Future Scenarios

Reos Partners
April, 2022

Reos Partners supported the mission of Tenemos Que Hablar de Chile by working with a diverse group of Chileans representing different sectors of society to reflect on the future of the country. Tenemos Que Hablar de Chile is a collaborative citizen advocacy platform that encourages dialogue in an increasingly polarized environment. The organization has reached thousands of Chileans, giving them the opportunity to share their hopes and dreams for Chile. With the help of Reos, the group developed a set of four possible scenarios for what could happen in the country by 2030.

Read more about the groundbreaking project and an overview of the four resulting scenarios below. 

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Envisioning a New Future for Chile

In this interview, Reos Partners Project Lead Gerardo Marquez and Tenemos Que Hablar de Chile Deputy Director Valentina Rosas share details about the groundbreaking project, the innovative methodology, and their hope for its impact on the country and its people.

Read the interview.

Imagining Chile in 2030

In this video, Chileans share their hopes and fears of what Chile make look like in 2030.

Scenarios for the Future of Chile

Below are the four scenarios that emerged in Chile to 2030:

  1. Change: The first scenario focuses on building the foundation for social cohesion and country-wide resilience. While it may not fully materialize by 2030, it lays a path toward a transformed and collaborative Chile. It recognizes potential challenges in the fact that change, even when perceived as positive by many, always comes with the potential for resistance.
  2. Promises: In this scenario, demagogic leadership takes advantage of fiscal shortcuts to build a false sense of well-being and security. The country does not address the root problems affecting Chileans' lives, ultimately leading to a major institutional crisis. This scenario outlines a path in which the focus is on solving immediate problems without considering longer-term needs and implications.
  3. Order: In the third scenario, after a security crisis and an increase in violence, Chileans choose a political option that prioritizes order and security—in exchange for giving up civil liberties. The alternative of dialogue has been exhausted.
  4. Redesign: The final scenario showcases a fragmented country following changes produced by the constitutional process. Although Chile sees great changes as a result of the new constitution, it is also extremely divided with regions advancing at different rates.


Reflecting on Chile to 2030 Scenarios

In this video, people reflect on the scenarios and the possible futures for Chile at the scenario launch event in March 2022.

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