A fundamental tenet of scenario-based planning is that the future is uncertain and unpredictable. To help planners and decision-makers sensitize themselves to the unfolding events that are most relevant to their challenges and questions, many scenario projects include a “learning-forward” component defined by specific tools. Reos is currently leading the Western Electric Coordinating Council’s (WECC) scenario project, focused on long-term investments in electricity transmission systems in the western regions of Canada and the United States. To meet the particular “learning-forward” objectives of the WECC project, we have designed a collaboration tool that allows all participants in the process to actively identify, suggest, and monitor relevant developments and tie them directly to the scenario narratives as they progress. As a result, the narratives can be continually enriched with references to industry literature, popular culture, headlines, or anything else that substantiates the ideas presented in the unfolding scenario drafts.
This article explains the core element of this process, which we call the “EPS tool.”
The Core of the EPS Tool
The EPS tool is a means of supporting participants in collecting data as they develop scenario narratives together. EPS stands for “Event, Pattern, and Structure.” Beginning with an event, such as a recent federal policy decision, we progress to the pattern level: Is this a trend, and if so, what does it mean? And underneath that pattern there is a structure, a driving force, about which we can ask questions. By relating key events to their underlying meanings and potential trends, team members ground their thinking on a shared basis of evidence, and establish a basis for fruitful and energetic dialogue.
The diagram below defines the key steps of the process.
WECC implemented the EPS tool using existing features of its SharePoint portal, an online submission form that provides a way for participants to share a perspective or insight as well as the source of that information.
All participants in the scenario planning process (stakeholder steering group members, client team members, Reos staff, and invited experts) are invited to use this tool to submit events they observe.
We designed the EPS tool to capture and store all of the submissions, and more importantly, to allow contributors to associate each submission with one or more of the key driving forces that define the scenarios. In this way, we have built a coherent database of reference points that can inform dialogue about the nature and importance of any particular driving force. Additionally, the tool allows each submitter to associate a submission with a particular scenario or scenarios, and/or to denote an EPS as a potential “Wildcard”. Wildcards are events that are highly improbable but still possible and, if they occur, will strongly impact the situation. As people continue to make submissions, we add them to an EPS source document library of articles, reports, presentations, etc. Finally, we present summary reports on EPS submissions to our clients at quarterly stakeholder meetings to facilitate their understanding of recent additions to the database and how they relate to the scenario narratives.
The primary reason we created the EPS tool and the source document library was to provide a unique, continuing learning tool for the project participants. However, the combination of tool and library has become a resource for the extensive modeling process. These models quantitatively substantiate the scenarios and will be tied to specific EPS articles. Lastly, the EPS system has one more important function: to support the WECC team in defining a set of strategic options for investment in electricity transmission capacity and a related set of early indicators that the organization can monitor as events unfold.
As the scenarios are revised, participants may draw upon their own and other’s EPS submissions and the extensive documentation library. With such evidence in hand, it is easier to justify changes in logical arguments and the timing of key developments explained in the narratives. The EPS process established for WECC thus puts real “meat on the bones” for continuous learning in scenario-based planning.
Reos included the following charts in a recent report to the WECC team summarizing EPS submissions by both key driver and scenario.
EPS Submissions for the WECC Project by Scenario:
These charts show EPS submissions for two periods of time, August through January and February through May. This process will continue throughout 2012 and will conclude once a final set of revised scenarios is completed in 2013.
Example of an EPS Submission
EPS: Can Natural Gas Keep Up?
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